Response of damaging Philippines tropical cyclones to a warming climate using the pseudo global warming approach

Abstract The potential changes in the characteristics and damage of three most damaging tropical cyclone (TC) events (Haiyan 2013, Bopha 2012, Mangkhut 2018) Philippines have been simulated using pseudo global warming (PGW) technique. Simulations were performed Weather Research Forecasting model at 5 km resolution with cumulus parameterization (5 kmCU) 3 without (3 kmNoCU), PGW deltas derived from a selection CMIP6 models. We found that re-forecasting TCs under future leads to more intense TCs, maximum wind 4%, 3%, 14% for kmCU runs, 14%, 12% kmNoCU runs Typhoon Haiyan, Bopha, Mangkhut, respectively. track, translation speed, size are relatively small. TC cases higher impact future, as expressed by index, ranging ~ 1% up 37% SSP5-8.5 scenario. Based on pre-industrial climate change has had, so far, only weak influence intensity not much size. convective show similar sign projected response, but different signals speed